A brief history
of the republican Iowa Caucus shows the
winner of this important caucus doesn't
mean that candidate will be the nominee.
In 2004 George
W. Bush ran unopposed, but in 2000 he faced
stiff competition from business man Steve
Forbes and edged him out 41 % to 30%. Once
again, even though Bush stumbled in New
Hampshire, Iowa gave us the Republican nominee
and the next president of the United States.
In 1996 Bob
Dole won and became the nominee, but in
1988 Bob Dole also won, but George H. Bush
who finished a solid 3rd, would go on to
win the nomination and the presidency.
In 2008 Mike
Huckabee won with 38% of the vote while
eventual nominee, John McCain, finished
in fourth with just 14% of the vote.
So while the
2012 Republican Iowa Caucus still has extreme
importance, its winner is not necessarily
the guaranteed to be the Republican nominee
to face Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential
election.
Mike Huckabee,
the 2008 winner, is the early favorite to
win the 2012
Iowa Caucus, but he will have a lot
of competition. The big question is how
someone like Sarah Palin or other Tea-Party
candidates might play in Iowa. Nearby Minnesota
Governor Tim Pawlenty should have a solid
chance and one-time House leader Newt Gingrich
may attempt his political comeback in Iowa. |